Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-19 79331.716507 83776.651046 88221.580699 92996.819072 97978.502350 103019.037720 108501.362678
2025-01-26 72852.713067 79718.431334 86776.917158 94565.821207 102909.392947 111568.732280 121224.863039
2025-02-02 68435.186675 77011.356120 86021.566313 96172.509643 107268.851397 119008.742343 132346.925150
2025-02-09 64519.841358 74345.575695 84858.651392 96909.319940 110304.675220 124701.935321 141309.503303
2025-02-16 60762.671581 71508.983558 83194.553142 96794.537261 112134.642255 128848.755743 148382.508743
2025-02-23 57954.102685 69507.073855 82252.760686 97288.194153 114467.318283 133410.367485 155802.485751
2025-03-02 55253.151431 67447.497063 81082.658599 97369.078381 116198.785583 137189.635033 162259.993004
2025-03-09 53534.149778 66404.709713 80971.949777 98567.902475 119127.927819 142271.342325 170166.701228
2025-03-16 51026.673662 64308.848078 79523.763929 98105.919632 120044.161754 144973.634312 175289.590097
2025-03-23 49835.883979 63705.393302 79763.884340 99568.704684 123164.519372 150200.821786 183334.559627
2025-03-30 48431.456124 62772.219446 79549.818469 100437.880552 125543.743724 154540.008908 190339.879327
2025-04-06 46674.073718 61333.672945 78662.293289 100438.832884 126839.811677 157570.673363 195787.710339
2025-04-13 44876.885921 59808.027628 77644.291459 100272.114945 127945.656996 160411.509878 201080.088034
2025-04-20 44182.465383 59626.195907 78248.158839 102071.689888 131432.631322 166116.271503 209839.698892
2025-04-27 43510.546970 59437.620445 78816.759708 103809.837642 134840.240284 171738.110813 218535.032168
2025-05-04 42430.996328 58685.689079 78646.060552 104599.993864 137064.101619 175923.187683 225507.230158
2025-05-11 40990.088130 57417.581970 77780.598177 104479.342250 138128.204409 178675.913486 230731.826740
2025-05-18 39926.450969 56600.324640 77451.868080 105004.692256 139975.081071 182377.959854 237124.485266
2025-05-25 38725.395093 55561.632404 76803.337724 105090.784097 141245.884843 185356.504804 242627.759368
2025-06-01 38105.718369 55268.617472 77095.560950 106365.685048 144011.630200 190194.220455 250454.783827
2025-06-08 36766.097875 53970.901360 76044.776306 105874.415942 144504.731406 192181.096500 254730.059052
2025-06-15 36343.062709 53893.171904 76577.429799 107429.849296 147614.721738 197458.855637 263147.821339
2025-06-22 35684.145731 53471.248687 76637.502553 108353.948359 149907.184653 201712.478026 270300.233657